OLG page: Showcase / Code / Methodology tabs ported from the OG-UK dashboard

.github/workflows/site-provenance.yml

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ on:
 
 jobs:
   charts:
-    name: validation/index.html matches its sources
+    name: model validation pages match their chart sources
     runs-on: ubuntu-latest
     timeout-minutes: 5
     steps:
@@ -22,6 +22,8 @@ jobs:
           python-version: "3.13"
       - name: Charts are regenerable from committed data
         run: python3 validation/figures/make_charts.py --check
+      - name: OLG showcase stats table matches the committed transition data
+        run: python3 olg/figures/make_showcase.py --check
       - name: Economy page matches committed data and forecasts
         run: python3 economy/build.py --check
       - name: Homepage hero fan matches the current forecast artifact

assets/make_current_outlooks.py

@@ -47,15 +47,18 @@ def ymap(v):
         f'<polyline class="vc-s2" points="{points(c, xs, ymap)}"/>',
         f'<circle class="vc-s1-dot" cx="{xs[-1]:.1f}" cy="{ymap(g[-1]):.1f}" r="3.5"/>',
         f'<circle class="vc-s2-dot" cx="{xs[-1]:.1f}" cy="{ymap(c[-1]):.1f}" r="3.5"/>',
-        '<text class="vc-lab" x="565" y="25">real GDP</text><text class="vc-lab vc-lab2" x="650" y="25">consumption</text>',
+
     ]
     for i in (0, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20):
         out.append(
             f'<text class="vc-tick" x="{xs[i]:.1f}" y="302" text-anchor="middle">{q[i]}</text>'
         )
     out += [
         "</svg>",
-        "<figcaption>Latest official baseline available on 21 July 2026. Levels are indexed to 2026Q1 so the two series can share one honest scale. Source: OBR March 2026 detailed forecast tables; committed values in <code>papers/obr-macro/figures/current_outlook.csv</code>.</figcaption>",
+        '<div class="olg-legend">'
+        '<span class="li"><span class="ln ln-s1"></span>Real GDP</span>'
+        '<span class="li"><span class="ln ln-s2"></span>Household consumption</span>'
+        '</div>',
         "</figure>",
     ]
     return "\n".join(out)

assets/make_hero.py

@@ -123,12 +123,14 @@ def band(lo, hi):
         f'<circle class="hf-dot" cx="{n(xs[-1])}" cy="{n(ymap(med[-1]))}" r="4"/>'
     )
 
-    out.append(
-        f'<text class="hf-tick hf-q" x="{n(x0)}" y="366">{esc(quarters[0])}</text>'
-    )
-    out.append(
-        f'<text class="hf-tick hf-q" x="{n(x1)}" y="366" text-anchor="end">{esc(quarters[-1])}</text>'
-    )
+    # Year labels along the x-axis: the first quarter's year at the left edge,
+    # then each subsequent year at its Q1 boundary.
+    for i, q in enumerate(quarters):
+        year, qtr = q.split("Q")
+        if i == 0 or qtr == "1":
+            out.append(
+                f'<text class="hf-tick hf-q" x="{n(xs[i])}" y="366">{esc(year)}</text>'
+            )
     # No in-SVG caption: the <figcaption> next to this figure says the same thing
     # at real body size. Below 1000px the viewBox scales to roughly half, which
     # would render these 11px labels at ~6px, so style.css hides .hf-tick there

connect/index.html

@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@
 
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/fonts/fonts.css" />
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/ui-kit-tokens.css" />
-<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css" />
+<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css?v=2" />
 <style>
 /* ---------- connect page ---------- */
 .connect-hero { min-height: auto; padding-top: clamp(120px, 18vh, 180px); padding-bottom: 24px; }
@@ -276,7 +276,7 @@
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/">Home</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/economy">Economy</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/models">Models</a>
-    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Track record</a>
+    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Forecasts</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile nav-start" href="/connect" aria-current="page">Use</a>
     <a class="nav-gh" href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/macro" aria-label="GitHub"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="18" height="18" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M9 19c-4.3 1.4 -4.3 -2.5 -6 -3m12 5v-3.5c0 -1 .1 -1.4 -.5 -2c2.8 -.3 5.5 -1.4 5.5 -6a4.6 4.6 0 0 0 -1.3 -3.2a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 -3.2s-1.1 -.3 -3.5 1.3a12.3 12.3 0 0 0 -6.2 0c-2.4 -1.6 -3.5 -1.3 -3.5 -1.3a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 3.2c-.9 .9 -1.3 2 -1.3 3.2c0 4.6 2.7 5.7 5.5 6c-.6 .6 -.6 1.2 -.5 2v3.5"/></svg></a>
   </nav>
@@ -428,32 +428,32 @@ <h2>Use Python directly.</h2>
       <div class="model-pane compact-pane" id="model-panel-oguk" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="model-tab-oguk" data-model="oguk" hidden>
         <span class="tag tag-local">local</span><h3>Long-run reform effects</h3>
         <p>Model work, saving, capital, and public finances over decades.</p>
-        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/olg#run">Open OG-UK setup</a>
+        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/olg/code#run">Open OG-UK setup</a>
       </div>
       <div class="model-pane compact-pane" id="model-panel-obr" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="model-tab-obr" data-model="obr">
         <span class="tag tag-hosted">hosted</span><h3>Near-term UK fiscal effects</h3>
         <p>Trace tax and spending changes against the OBR baseline.</p>
-        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/obr#run">Open OBR setup</a>
+        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/obr/code#run">Open OBR setup</a>
       </div>
       <div class="model-pane compact-pane" id="model-panel-frbus" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="model-tab-frbus" data-model="frbus" hidden>
         <span class="tag tag-hosted">hosted</span><h3>US monetary and fiscal shocks</h3>
         <p>Run frb-us impulse responses under a chosen policy rule.</p>
-        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/frb-us#run">Open frb-us setup</a>
+        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/frb-us/code#run">Open frb-us setup</a>
       </div>
       <div class="model-pane compact-pane" id="model-panel-svar" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="model-tab-svar" data-model="svar" hidden>
         <span class="tag tag-hosted">hosted</span><h3>UK forecasts and shock decomposition</h3>
         <p>Forecast GDP and inflation or explain what moved them.</p>
-        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/svar#run">Open SVAR setup</a>
+        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/svar/code#run">Open SVAR setup</a>
       </div>
       <div class="model-pane compact-pane" id="model-panel-hank" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="model-tab-hank" data-model="hank" hidden>
         <span class="tag tag-hosted">hosted</span><h3>US shocks across the wealth distribution</h3>
         <p>Run stylized HANK shocks with MPC and hand-to-mouth detail.</p>
-        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/us-hank#run">Open us-hank setup</a>
+        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/us-hank/code#run">Open us-hank setup</a>
       </div>
       <div class="model-pane compact-pane" id="model-panel-pe" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="model-tab-pe" data-model="pe" hidden>
         <span class="tag tag-hosted">hosted</span><h3>UK and US household impacts</h3>
         <p>Calculate taxes, benefits, and reform effects.</p>
-        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/pe#run">Open PolicyEngine setup</a>
+        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="/pe/code#run">Open PolicyEngine setup</a>
       </div>
     </div>
   </section>
@@ -463,15 +463,13 @@ <h2>Use Python directly.</h2>
   <p class="footer-legal">© 2026 PolicyEngine. All rights reserved.</p>
   <nav class="footer-links" aria-label="PolicyEngine links">
     <a class="footer-text footer-policyengine" href="https://policyengine.org"><img src="/assets/policyengine-mark.svg" alt="" width="17" height="17" />PolicyEngine</a>
-    <a class="footer-text" href="/validation">Validation</a>
-    <a class="footer-text" href="/papers">Papers</a>
     <a class="footer-text" href="/notes">Notes</a>
     <a class="footer-text" href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/macro">GitHub</a>
     <a class="footer-text" href="/contact">Contact</a>
   </nav>
 </footer>
 
-<script src="/reveal.js" defer></script>
+<script src="/reveal.js?v=2" defer></script>
 <script>
 (function () {
   "use strict";

contact/index.html

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 <meta name="theme-color" content="#FFFFFF" />
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/fonts/fonts.css" />
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/ui-kit-tokens.css" />
-<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css" />
+<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css?v=2" />
 </head>
 <body class="doc contact-page">
 <a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
@@ -31,7 +31,7 @@
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/">Home</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/economy">Economy</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/models">Models</a>
-    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Track record</a>
+    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Forecasts</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile nav-start" href="/connect">Use</a>
     <a class="nav-gh" href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/macro" aria-label="GitHub"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="18" height="18" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M9 19c-4.3 1.4 -4.3 -2.5 -6 -3m12 5v-3.5c0 -1 .1 -1.4 -.5 -2c2.8 -.3 5.5 -1.4 5.5 -6a4.6 4.6 0 0 0 -1.3 -3.2a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 -3.2s-1.1 -.3 -3.5 1.3a12.3 12.3 0 0 0 -6.2 0c-2.4 -1.6 -3.5 -1.3 -3.5 -1.3a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 3.2c-.9 .9 -1.3 2 -1.3 3.2c0 4.6 2.7 5.7 5.5 6c-.6 .6 -.6 1.2 -.5 2v3.5"/></svg></a>
   </nav>
@@ -74,13 +74,11 @@ <h2>Get in touch.</h2>
   <p class="footer-legal">© 2026 PolicyEngine. All rights reserved.</p>
   <nav class="footer-links" aria-label="PolicyEngine links">
     <a class="footer-text footer-policyengine" href="https://policyengine.org"><img src="/assets/policyengine-mark.svg" alt="" width="17" height="17" />PolicyEngine</a>
-    <a class="footer-text" href="/validation">Validation</a>
-    <a class="footer-text" href="/papers">Papers</a>
     <a class="footer-text" href="/notes">Notes</a>
     <a class="footer-text" href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/macro">GitHub</a>
     <a class="footer-text" href="/contact">Contact</a>
   </nav>
 </footer>
-<script src="/reveal.js" defer></script>
+<script src="/reveal.js?v=2" defer></script>
 </body>
 </html>

economy/build.py

@@ -788,12 +788,11 @@ def rng(fc: dict) -> str:
         return f"68% range {fmt(fc['lo68'])}%–{fmt(fc['hi68'])}%"
 
     caption = (
-        "UK headline indicators: latest official outturn and the model "
-        "near-term forecast. Outturn vintages as of "
-        f"{max(gdp['vintage'], cpi['vintage'], unemployment['vintage'])}; "
-        f"GDP and CPI from the boe-svar forecast generated {forecast['generated']} "
-        f"(conditioned on data through {forecast['data_edge']}); unemployment "
-        f"from the {okun['round_id']} Okun-satellite round."
+        "Latest ONS outturns (vintages as of "
+        f"{max(gdp['vintage'], cpi['vintage'], unemployment['vintage'])}) beside the "
+        f"model near-term forecast from the archived "
+        '<a href="/forecasts">boe-svar and Okun-satellite rounds</a>. '
+        'Full sources and the complete horizon are on the <a href="/economy">economy page</a>.'
     )
     return "\n".join(
         [
@@ -838,8 +837,10 @@ def home_us_now() -> str:
 
     caption = (
         "US headline indicators beside the FRB/US April 2026 LONGBASE "
-        "baseline. Outturn vintages as of "
-        f"{max(gdp['vintage'], cpi['vintage'], unemployment['vintage'])}."
+        "conditioning baseline — not a forecast. Outturns are FRED series "
+        "(GDPC1, CPIAUCSL, UNRATE), vintages as of "
+        f"{max(gdp['vintage'], cpi['vintage'], unemployment['vintage'])}. "
+        'Full sources are on the <a href="/economy/us">US economy page</a>.'
     )
     return "\n".join(
         [

economy/index.html

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 <meta name="theme-color" content="#FFFFFF" />
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/fonts/fonts.css" />
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/ui-kit-tokens.css" />
-<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css" />
+<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css?v=2" />
 </head>
 <body class="doc economy-page">
 <a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/">Home</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/economy" aria-current="page">Economy</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/models">Models</a>
-    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Track record</a>
+    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Forecasts</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile nav-start" href="/connect">Use</a>
     <a class="nav-gh" href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/macro" aria-label="GitHub"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="18" height="18" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M9 19c-4.3 1.4 -4.3 -2.5 -6 -3m12 5v-3.5c0 -1 .1 -1.4 -.5 -2c2.8 -.3 5.5 -1.4 5.5 -6a4.6 4.6 0 0 0 -1.3 -3.2a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 -3.2s-1.1 -.3 -3.5 1.3a12.3 12.3 0 0 0 -6.2 0c-2.4 -1.6 -3.5 -1.3 -3.5 -1.3a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 3.2c-.9 .9 -1.3 2 -1.3 3.2c0 4.6 2.7 5.7 5.5 6c-.6 .6 -.6 1.2 -.5 2v3.5"/></svg></a>
   </nav>
@@ -292,14 +292,12 @@ <h2>Upcoming and recent releases.</h2>
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   <nav class="footer-links" aria-label="PolicyEngine links">
     <a class="footer-text footer-policyengine" href="https://policyengine.org"><img src="/assets/policyengine-mark.svg" alt="" width="17" height="17" />PolicyEngine</a>
-    <a class="footer-text" href="/validation">Validation</a>
-    <a class="footer-text" href="/papers">Papers</a>
     <a class="footer-text" href="/notes">Notes</a>
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   </nav>
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-<script src="/reveal.js" defer></script>
+<script src="/reveal.js?v=2" defer></script>
 <script src="/economy/economy-nav.js"></script>
 </body>
 </html>

economy/trends/index.html

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 <meta name="theme-color" content="#FFFFFF" />
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/fonts/fonts.css" />
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/ui-kit-tokens.css" />
-<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css" />
+<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css?v=2" />
 </head>
 <body class="doc economy-page trends-page">
 <a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/">Home</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/economy" aria-current="true">Economy</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/models">Models</a>
-    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Track record</a>
+    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Forecasts</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile nav-start" href="/connect">Use</a>
     <a class="nav-gh" href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/macro" aria-label="GitHub"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="18" height="18" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M9 19c-4.3 1.4 -4.3 -2.5 -6 -3m12 5v-3.5c0 -1 .1 -1.4 -.5 -2c2.8 -.3 5.5 -1.4 5.5 -6a4.6 4.6 0 0 0 -1.3 -3.2a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 -3.2s-1.1 -.3 -3.5 1.3a12.3 12.3 0 0 0 -6.2 0c-2.4 -1.6 -3.5 -1.3 -3.5 -1.3a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 3.2c-.9 .9 -1.3 2 -1.3 3.2c0 4.6 2.7 5.7 5.5 6c-.6 .6 -.6 1.2 -.5 2v3.5"/></svg></a>
   </nav>
@@ -139,13 +139,11 @@ <h2 id="uk-trends-related-title">What the latest CPI outturn changes.</h2>
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-    <a class="footer-text" href="/validation">Validation</a>
-    <a class="footer-text" href="/papers">Papers</a>
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+<script src="/reveal.js?v=2" defer></script>
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economy/us/index.html

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 <meta name="theme-color" content="#FFFFFF" />
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/fonts/fonts.css" />
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/ui-kit-tokens.css" />
-<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css" />
+<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css?v=2" />
 </head>
 <body class="doc economy-page">
 <a class="skip-link" href="#top">Skip to main content</a>
@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/">Home</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/economy" aria-current="true">Economy</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/models">Models</a>
-    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Track record</a>
+    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Forecasts</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile nav-start" href="/connect">Use</a>
     <a class="nav-gh" href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/macro" aria-label="GitHub"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="18" height="18" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M9 19c-4.3 1.4 -4.3 -2.5 -6 -3m12 5v-3.5c0 -1 .1 -1.4 -.5 -2c2.8 -.3 5.5 -1.4 5.5 -6a4.6 4.6 0 0 0 -1.3 -3.2a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 -3.2s-1.1 -.3 -3.5 1.3a12.3 12.3 0 0 0 -6.2 0c-2.4 -1.6 -3.5 -1.3 -3.5 -1.3a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 3.2c-.9 .9 -1.3 2 -1.3 3.2c0 4.6 2.7 5.7 5.5 6c-.6 .6 -.6 1.2 -.5 2v3.5"/></svg></a>
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@@ -272,14 +272,12 @@ <h2>Freshness you can verify.</h2>
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economy/us/trends/index.html

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 <meta name="theme-color" content="#FFFFFF" />
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/fonts/fonts.css" />
 <link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/ui-kit-tokens.css" />
-<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css" />
+<link rel="stylesheet" href="/style.css?v=2" />
 </head>
 <body class="doc economy-page trends-page">
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@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/">Home</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/economy" aria-current="true">Economy</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile" href="/models">Models</a>
-    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Track record</a>
+    <a class="nav-mobile" href="/forecasts">Forecasts</a>
     <a class="nav-mobile nav-start" href="/connect">Use</a>
     <a class="nav-gh" href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/macro" aria-label="GitHub"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="18" height="18" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M9 19c-4.3 1.4 -4.3 -2.5 -6 -3m12 5v-3.5c0 -1 .1 -1.4 -.5 -2c2.8 -.3 5.5 -1.4 5.5 -6a4.6 4.6 0 0 0 -1.3 -3.2a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 -3.2s-1.1 -.3 -3.5 1.3a12.3 12.3 0 0 0 -6.2 0c-2.4 -1.6 -3.5 -1.3 -3.5 -1.3a4.2 4.2 0 0 0 -.1 3.2c-.9 .9 -1.3 2 -1.3 3.2c0 4.6 2.7 5.7 5.5 6c-.6 .6 -.6 1.2 -.5 2v3.5"/></svg></a>
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@@ -132,13 +132,11 @@ <h2>Three signals, shown over time.</h2>
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