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ogar-loco: PROBE-ORACLE-FUNNEL Stage 0 — 3-arm funnel probe, measured - #245

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Aug 5, 2026
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ogar-loco: PROBE-ORACLE-FUNNEL Stage 0 — 3-arm funnel probe, measured#245
AdaWorldAPI merged 1 commit into
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PROBE-ORACLE-FUNNEL Stage 0 — does the funnel discriminate? (measured: yes, widely)

First consumer measurement over the #241/#244 surfaces, exactly as the merged wishlist handover sketched. No mints, no LLM, no API — deterministic generator arms over the shipped gates.

What this adds

  • crates/ogar-loco/examples/funnel_probe.rs — 3-arm probe (SplitMix64 seed 0x9E3779B97F4A7C15, N=1000/arm, Pairs, len 1..=16): R uniform-random bytes (floor), G legend-constrained (knows the table, not the grammar), W stack-aware walk (ceiling). Each candidate: FunctionBody::from_callsstatement_boundsFunnelTally.
  • docs/BLOCK-EDITOR-PLAN.md — measured-results section appended.

Results (pre-registered E1–E4 all met; pre-registration lives consumer-side in lance-graph .claude/plans/oracle-funnel-probe-v1.md, written before the run)

arm survived dominant refusal
R floor 5/1000 (0.5%) StatementUncovered 831
G mid 25/1000 (2.5%) StatementUnderflow 970
W ceiling 1000/1000 (100%) — (statements mean 2.32, max 8)
  • E4 KILL passes wide: R↔W spread 99.5 pts (bar was ≥50) — the refuse-don't-guess firewall discriminates; the Stage-1 LLM arm is justified.
  • Extra finding — the legend is not the grammar: Arm G lands at the floor, not midway. Vocabulary knowledge buys ~nothing; the stack discipline carries ~all the constraint. Stage-1 prompts must teach the postfix discipline, not just serialize the table.
  • Legend cost anchor (W-2): 50 named+covered slots → 1531 B ≈ 382 tokens.
  • Honest boundary: BodyError (entry gate) structurally unexercised at these shapes; Stage 0 measures the segmentation gate only.

Gates: cargo test -p ogar-loco green, cargo clippy -p ogar-loco --examples -- -D warnings clean, fmt clean. Zero-dep discipline kept (SplitMix64 hand-rolled).

Deterministic (SplitMix64, N=1000/arm) probe over the shipped gates
(validate -> statement_bounds -> FunnelTally) on the empty-domain blockly
core. Pre-registered E1-E4 (lance-graph oracle-funnel-probe-v1.md) all
met: floor 0.5% / legend-constrained 2.5% / stack-aware 100% survival.
The funnel discriminates (spread 99.5 pts); the legend alone is nearly
worthless without the stack discipline — a Stage-1 prompt-design input.
Legend cost anchor: 50 slots, 1531 B (~382 tokens). Results appended to
docs/BLOCK-EDITOR-PLAN.md.
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@AdaWorldAPI
AdaWorldAPI marked this pull request as ready for review August 5, 2026 14:31
@AdaWorldAPI
AdaWorldAPI merged commit 30a961e into main Aug 5, 2026
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2 participants