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Certify Build M US Populace (populace-us-2024-buildm-sparse-rmloss100-98bf731) as the certified default #474

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@MaxGhenis

Certify the Build M US Populace release as the certified default, replacing Build J:

  • New: populace-us-2024-buildm-sparse-rmloss100-98bf731-20260717T075101Z (published 2026-07-17, immutable tag on policyengine/populace-us; latest.json deliberately untouched)
  • Outgoing: populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z
  • Model: policyengine-us==1.764.6 (unchanged; compatibility_basis: built_with_model_package)

Build M sparse vs Build J on the release scorecard: final loss 0.02666 vs 0.03084, within-10% 90.21% vs 89.00%, 5,667 vs 5,510 compiled targets, all 14 release gates passed (export-mass parity 0/30 after the reviewed exclusions in populace#433/#442; SSI swap delta 464,107 within cap 654,017; reform-coverage smoke fully green including the keogh probe at +$118.1M under the populace#446 selection-mass protection).

Runbook: docs/engineering/runbooks/build-m-us-populace-certification.md. The merge of the certification PR is the default flip and stays with the maintainer.

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